Quick Bites: 

US weekly crop conditions.

The percentages of US crops rated Good to Excellent:
Corn 66%, down 1%, Soybeans 61%, down 2%
The US Corn crop is 11% harvest compared to the 5 year average of 11%.
The US Spring Wheat crop is 96% harvested compared to the 5 year average of 96%.
The US Winter Wheat crop is 20% planted compared to the 5 year average of 23%.

US export inspections.

Wheat – 854,400 tonnes (31.3 million bushels), more than expected.
Corn – 1,329,000 tonnes (52.3 million bushels), as expected.
Soybeans – 484,100 tonnes (17.8 million bushels), less than expected.

OECD global economic forecast.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised its global economic forecast for 2025 from 2.9% to 3.2% citing more resilient growth than expected in emerging markets and the US. Global growth leaders continue to be India, Indonesia and China. Global growth for 2026 continues to be forecast at 2.9%. Here in North America, US growth is expected to be 1.8% this year and 1.5% next year. Canada is pegged at 1.1% for 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Canadian travel.

In July, Canadian resident round trips to the US were down 32.4% from last year. Conversely, trips by Americans to Canada were down 3.0%. Canadians travelling overseas rose 10.3%. Trips to Canada by overseas residents rose 10.3%. The top three origins for overseas visitors were the UK, France, and India, together accounting for 30.7% of all arrivals.

Asia hit by super hurricane.

Parts of Asia ranging from the Philippines, Hong Kong and southern China have already been or soon will be pounded by Typhoon Ragasa. Nicknamed “the King of Storms”, it is the single largest storm on the planet this year.

General Comment - Unwinding Excess: 

Yesterday, many grain and oilseed markets were hit by heavy selling in the wake of the Argentine export duty cancellation. This caused some chart breakdowns that seem to have been a mixture of triggering “stop loss orders” selling existing long positions together with fresh selling based on chartists’ readings of “sell signals”. However, today, some markets rebounded because this broadbrush weakness did not fundamentally apply to them. The grains, especially Wheat, showed the best recoveries.

Grain Commodities:

Corn:

Strength but…
Yesterday’s sell-off caused Corn futures prices to break their uptrend line and, despite today’s price recovery, Corn’s momentum picture has been diminished. For example, the MACD measure has returned to neutral while several key stochastic indicators have rolled over into a potentially bearish situation. This might mean that new participants wishing to buy the dip could run into substantial sellers looking to liquidate their old long positions in the December futures contract near previous overhead resistance above US$4.30/bu. Of note, last year’s late September highs were the top before a downward correction that ran into December.

Soybeans:

Buying the downdraft.
Yesterday, China reportedly bought ten cargos of Argentine Soybeans for November delivery. While this establishes ongoing firm global demand for Soybeans, it does not help North American pricing in the short term. However, increasingly depleted South American inventories will eventually encourage other buyers to look towards US supplies before the next South American crop is harvested from mid-March into April.

Canola:

US green energy.
Today in an address to the General Assembly of the United Nations, US President Trump referred to climate change as the “greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.” In this context without a real commitment to green energy, it is possible that current biofuel regulations might be seen as just an old policy being extended simply to keep Midwest voters loyal to his party. Time will tell. In the short term, both Canola futures prices and Bean Oil look oversold.

Wheat:

A tell?
Poker players hope to spot an opponent’s “tell” when an adversary inadvertently gives away his position without actually showing his cards. Gamblers and James Bond types aside, the Wheat market was hit hard yesterday by a wave of selling, but aggressive buyers surfaced today and recouped most of Monday’s price losses. This tell demonstrates that there are buyers out there waiting for bargains. How many, and how big are their purchase requirements? If there are some who were holding back hoping the dip would go deeper, they might have to alter their strategies and buy-in fairly soon too. Consistent with previous comments made in recent weeks, the Wheats look like they are tracing out major price bottoms.

Canadian dollar 

Rangebound.
Since August, the spot Canadian dollar has formed a trading range bounded roughly by US$0.7175 on the lows and 0.7300 on the highs. Today, the Loonie was mildly weaker and slightly below the range’s mid-level. This week, capital markets are trading cautiously owing to a heavy schedule of economic indicator releases and Federal Reserve Board member speeches. Today, Fed Chairman Powell indicated that “…by many measures, for example, equity prices are fairly highly valued.” In potential consequence, this sort of comment might lead to some northbound capital movement if Canadian investors choose to lighten their US stock holdings.

ICYMI: Argentina suspends grain export taxes: Sept. 22, 2025. Ben Buckner of AgResource Company discusses the news today that Argentina will remove export taxes on all grains until Oct. 31. He explains the reasons behind the move and warns the potential for greater exports out of Argentina will only add to already heavy global corn and soybean supplies.